It was no
surprise that China would convey its displeasure to India testing its 5000 Km
nuclear capable ballistic missile on April 19. What may be a little surprising
though that Chinese Foreign Ministry’s spokesman Liu Weiwin underplayed the
development stating “China and India are, both large and emerging economies, and
cooperative partners rather than rivals”.
Unlike in
the past Liu refrained from cautioning India about arms race or proliferation.
This was left to the official media to do, thereby maintaining a degree of
deniability. It may be noted that pressed for a clarification Chinese officials
and senior media personnel admit that media outlets like the People’s Daily (The
Communist Party mouthpiece), the Xinhua News agency, and English language China
Daily overwhelmingly represent the official line. There are at times
independent views, but these also cannot contradict what the party and the state
lay down.
Therefore,
the editorial in the Global Times (April 09) on the Agni-V missile test,
republished by the Xinhua and the China Daily, can be taken as official
position. The Global Times is a subsidiary of the People’s Daily.
The
editorial, “India being swept up by missile delusion” uses all angles to berate
and demoralise India. It said that India is a poor country and lacks
infrastructure construction, and that India’s increased military spending by 17
percent in 2012 and had made it the largest weapons importer in the world. To
an extent these are facts. This is one of old Chinese practice highlighting
India’s lagging economic development while telling the South Asian countries
that India was an expansionist and hegemonic power threatening them militarily.
But such propaganda does not work any longer. On the one side is China’s huge
military spending which has quadrupled in the last decade. Beijing is using its
military threat against countries in its periphery with which it has
territorial disputes. Experts say China may start military strikes against some
of these countries to establish its so-called territorial rights. The doctrine
is ‘limited war under information technology conditions’. On the other side
India is an emerging economy which does not threaten any country and is helping
its neighbours in economic development. For example, New Delhi gave Bangladesh
a one billion dollar, very low interest, development assistance last year.
While China is being increasingly feared, India is being admired for its
economic development and peaceful attitude even by its arch enemy, Pakistan.
The
editorial apparently revealed something which may have been disturbing the
Chinese authorities in recent years. It said that the “Indian public opinion
has long seen China as its reference point for military development”, and “the
society (Indian) is highly supportive of developing nuclear power”.
Following
the 1962 debacle when Chinese attacked India along the borders and retained some
captured territory with them, the Indian military suffered a psychological set
back. Within the government, the approach was not to provoke China. The public
was kept uninformed of Chinese transgressions. This may explain the reason for
the slow approach to infrastructure construction along the borders. Money was
another constraint. The cold war distrust of the USA in India allowed China to
create a strong hold in the anti-US intellectual groups in India who, at the
same time, became advocates of China, often arguing against India. Some
Chinese loyalists are still around finding excuses even for China supplying arms
to India’s north-east militants and separatists.
Following
the Bofors field gun import scandal, one of the finest in its category in the
world, Indian officials responsible for military imports went into a cocoon. No
one wanted to get his hands sullied in the murky world of military trade with
visible and not so visible middle men, bribery and corruption. While Indian
military modernization dwindled, China’s grew exponentially.
But things
in India has changed rather rapidly not only in terms of defence acquisition but
also indigenization. Defence Minister A.K. Anthony, a no nonsense man, is
credited with this change of approach. But the Chinese are equally if not more
concerned with that they perceive as a growing concern in India on China’s
strategy to constrain India in more ways than one. Beijing authorities are
well aware of the power of people’s voice in a democracy to shape the country’s
policies. They blame the Indian free media basically for educating the people
of China’s containment strategy against India, making Pakistan a stand alone
nuclear state to keep India under pressure, China’s strong opposition to the
Indo-US nuclear deal among many other things. The Chinese feel that they can
manage Indian officials, but people’s opinion in a democracy is a matter the
Chinese are not familiar with and are disturbed about.
China is
actually sensitive about the strategic partnership between a rising India and
the US. Particularly disturbing to them is India-US military relations, high
technology transfer to India from the US, joint military exercises and
strategic collaboration. The US-Japan-India trilateral dialogue is
seen as a meeting of minds between the three on how to deal with China’s
growing political and military status, and have put India squarely with the two
countries to ‘besiege’ China (The People’s Daily, Feb 21, 2012).
While
China concedes that India’s Look East policy started long before the USA’s Asia
‘pivot’ early this year, it believes that the US has been persuading India to
enter the Asia Pacific region. The India-Japan defence cooperation and
India-South Korea new partnership are similarly viewed. History conscious China
has also taken note of India’s historical and friendly relations with most of
the South East Asian countries, and The People’s Daily (April 09, 2012) remarked
that India upset China by enhancing its strategic cooperation with countries in
the Asia Pacific Region.
The Global
Times editorial warned India not to get carried away by its Agni-V missile and
not to use its new strength by being “arrogant” in dealing with disputes with
China, as China was a much stronger nuclear power. It also cautioned India not
to cooperate with the “western allies” in containing China.
For China
to determine the Agni-V as an offensive weapon which can reach most parts of
China is rather churlish. China’s nuclear capable missiles from the DF-21 to
DF-31 series cover India many times over. It has armed its closest ally and
India’s sworn enemy Pakistan, with nuclear capability. It has now reportedly
made a new 4000 Km missile to specially target India. Yet, it calls all its
military modernization as defensive. This charade is not acceptable. China’s
worry is that India may have achieved a new parity in deterrence, and as India
acquires a nuclear triad like that of China, its strength at the high table of
negotiations may be neutralized. India’s nuclear doctrine is credible
deterrence and no first use. Beijing need not raise dust over this. India is
not interested in achieving China’s nuclear power, but it wants to ensure
peace. In fact, Agni-V came 10 years late at least while considering China’s
reaction. But it has ultimately come.
The
People’s Daily (Feb 21, 2012) also republished an article from the influential
Shanghai newspaper, the Liberation Daily, that India-China relations was being
adjusted by the USA’s strategic adjustment in the Asia Pacific Region, thereby
cautioning India that ‘if you are with the US you are not with us’. Yet, China
itself is pursuing on independent adjustment policy with the US which, if
successful, will reduce countries like India into the third tier of importance.
It is well known that since 1949, the People’s Republic of China recognized the
USA as the country to work with. The Soviet Union was always seen as an
adversary. But the anti-Communist Macarthysm in the US did not allow their
relationship to grow. China still hopes to see the world divided between US and
Chinese influence regions, but then Americans appear to have grown out of the
flash of President Barack Obama’s G-2 (US and China) concept of the world.
China’s
concept of good relation with India has become more complex, though they see and
invite India into cooperative relationship in a variety of ways. India has
gone more than a step forward to meet China.
Unfortunately, China has put riders. These include India’s Look East policy,
the Dalai Lama issue, India’s considered position on the border issue,
India-US relations, and India enhanced security relations with Asia Pacific
countries to name a few.
All these
issues cannot be dealt with in one basket. Each has its individual
characteristics. It would be best for China not to try and dictate India’s
foreign relations which mean interfering in India’s internal affairs. Purely
bilateral relations between India and China must be resolved amicably for larger
regional and international interface. But pin-pricking by China on visa issue
for Indian Kashmiris and the like will not help. China is right to realise that
there is an effective Indian public opinion.
The
Chinese official media has launched a propaganda blitz of the Agni-V issue. One
question for the Chinese government and media. Why is China’s huge military
modernization labelled ‘defensive’, while India’s on Agni-V missile is
projected as offensive?