Mr. Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, the President of Maldives, visited India from January 1-4, 2014. His decision to visit India first, after his election in November 2013, is an indicationthat he wants to repair India-Maldives relations which had received a setback sincePresidentNasheedwas deposedin February2012.
PoliticalTurbulenceand Strain in Bilateral Relations
Maldives has undergone considerable political turbulence in 2012-13. The presidential electionheld on September7, 2013 was annulled by the SupremeCourt over allegation of voting irregularities.The court also cancelled the second round planned on September28, because none of the candidates could poll more than 50 per cent of the votes. In the annulled election former President Mohamed Nasheed of Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) had secured 45.45 per cent, while Abdullah Yameen of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) camesecondwith 25.35 per cent of the votes.
In the first round of electionheld subsequentlyon November 9, 2013, Nasheedwon about 47 per cent of votes leaving behind his nearest rival Abdulla Yameen at 30 per cent. However, in the second round of election, Abdulla Yameen, getting the support of other opposition parties, managed to get 51.39 per cent, compared to 48.61 percent for Nasheed. The turnaround in Yameen’s fortunes happened as all opponents of Nasheed joined hands to isolate and defeat him. It is interestingthat Nasheed accepted his defeat graciously despite the narrow margin of his loss. Hopefully, this will help bring political stability in the country. Soon after his electionthe new Presidentsaid thathis priority was to stabilize rupiahand createjobs.
During 2012-13, India-Maldives relations suffered considerably. The Maldivian Government terminated the Indian company GMR contract of the Male airport on allegations of irregularity in awarding the project. The former President Nasheed had to take shelter in the Indian embassy in 2013 due to violent protestson the streets of Male. The bilateral relations touched a new low in February 2013. It is in this context that Mr Yameen’s visit to India becomesimportant.
PresidentYameen’s Visit
During the visit, Mr Yameen was effusive in praising India. He said, “In every hour of national distress,be it a foreign terroristcoup attempt as with the 1988 mercenary attack or a natural catastrophesuchas the 2004 Asian Tsunami, India helpedus wholeheartedly and generously in restoring normalcy to the lives of our people." For India, Maldives’ location in the Indian Ocean and close to its southern tip makes it a strategically significantcountry. The reportof increasingChinese presencein the Maldives is a matter of anxiety for India. Mr Yameen’s visit was aimed at reassuring India that his country recognises India’s importance for Maldivian stability and would take India’s security concernson board.
During the visit, Mr Yameen soughtIndia’s help in puttingthe Maldivianeconomyon track. He specificallyaskedfor India’s assistancein skill buildingand training of personnel.
Key Agreementsto Boost Cooperation
Trade and Investment, Connectivity
The 1981 trade agreement between the two countries provides for export of essential commodities and bilateral trade has grown to Rs.700 crores (See Table-1 below). India imports scrap metals from Maldives while its exports include agriculture and poultry produce,sugar, fruits, vegetables, spices,rice, flour (atta), textiles, drugsand medicines, a variety of engineeringand industrial products, sand and aggregate, cement for building, etc. In June 2011, India released three-yearquota for export of essentialcommodities like Stone Aggregates, Rice, Wheat Flour, Sugar, Dal, Onion, Potato and Eggs from India to Maldives.
During President Yameen’s visit, further attention was paid to strengthen bilateral trade and investment. The Indian Prime Minister highlighted the key agreements and decisions based on the jointstatement . These include the facilitationof trade credit to the Maldives to the amount of 25 million dollars, the relaxation of restriction on export of stone aggregates, the favourable disposition of India for the Maldives request to import petrole
umfrom India, and the supplyof other essential commodities.
India and Maldives have also agreed to enhance connectivity, s
et up a joint consultative commission, promote investments, and step up security cooperation between the two countries. President Yameen acknowledged that Indian supplies of petroleum product would help Maldives to reduce its debt
burden and the visa regime would be simplified to promote peopleto people contacts.
Security
Security cooperationis a highly significant dimension of bilateral cooperation. The joint statementrecognises that“security interests of both the countriesare interlinked”. Within the institutional framework of security cooperation, India and Maldives have agreed to enhanceanti-terrorism cooperationand intensify cooperationin the areas of training and capacitybuildingof the Maldives NationalDefence Force and the Maldives Police Service.
Cooperationin Indian Ocean
A notable feature of the joint declarationis thatit recognisesIndia-Maldivian cooperation not only in the context of South Asia but also in the context of the Indian Ocean. Importantly, Maldives is willing to acknowledge India’s role in regional integration. The Maldivian President urged India to play a leadership role in strengthening SAARC. The declarationsays, "The two leadersshared the confidence thatcooperationat the bilateral, sub-regional and regional levels will enable the two countries to realise their developmentalaspirations, and contributeto peace, prosperity and security in the Indian Ocean Region and South Asia". Further, they agreed to "strengthen cooperation to enhancemaritime safety and security in the Indian Ocean Region through joint patrolling and aerial and maritime surveillance, exchange of information, capacity building and the developmentof an effectivelegal framework against piracy." This is a welcome framework for bilateral cooperationbut should also be seen in the context of the ongoing trilateral India-Sri Lanka-Maldives talks on regional security. Interestingly this is a first trilateral security cooperation of its kind for India. The security dialogue at sub-regional cooperation,whichwas agreedto (see IDSA commentaryby author), mustcontinue.
New Opportunitiesfor Consolidationof Relations
The visit has opened up an opportunity for the consolidation of relationship. The two leaderships must take the process forward and address each other’s concerns. The Maldivian President should walk the talk and try to resolve the contentious GMR issue quicklyto help restore investors’confidence in his country. He should also reassure India of the reportsof growing Chinesepresencein the country.
India on its part should help Maldives in buildingits economyand addressingthe needsof its manpower development. India should also provide developmental assistance to Maldives the way it has done for Bhutan. The Framework agreement of November 2011 and 2014 joint declaration provide the ground for deepeningof the ties. The two sides should work outa comprehensiveplan of developmentalpartnerships.
No doubt there are many factors of instability operating in Maldives. Internal politics in Maldives has beenvolatile lately. A stable democracyin Maldives is in India’s interest. It is fortunate that the results of the November 2013 elections were accepted by all concerned. India needs to remain engaged with all sections of the society and its approach should be people-centric. India should share its democratic experiences to strengthen Maldives fledgling institutions of democracy. People-to-people contacts must be strengthened.A regular bilateral security dialogue amongst the officials of both sides should be instituted to expand the scope of security cooperation. This should be supplementedby Track-II and Track-1.5 dialogues. India can help build think tanksin the country.
A deeper and comprehensiveengagementwith Maldives as with the other neighboursis vital for India. Any hesitation in dealingwith its neighbourswill only invite external powers to step in making a difficult situation even more complex. With the visit of the newly electedpresident,India has made a good beginningin its relationswith Maldives and this should be truly sustained.